Sunday, January 3, 2016

A Precarious World

The early days of 2016 did not begin well:

January 2, 2016:  Saudi Arabia, a kingdom of primarily Sunnis, executed a Shi'ite cleric, Nimr al-Nimr, along with 46 others, of whom 43 were Sunni jihadists and four, including Nimr, were Shi'ites.  [1]

January 3, 2016:  Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Iran after "protesters stormed and set fire to the Saudi Embassy in Tehran in protest over the death of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr." [2]

For those, including this blogger, who are ignorant about the differences between Sunnis and Shi'ites, an article dated September 15, 2014, entitled "ISIS and Washington's Ignorance About the Sunni-Shia Divide" by Gary Leupp, Professor of History at Tufts University, is a worthwhile read. [3]

It gives "[s]ome necessary historical background: In the seventh century the still young Islamic movement split into two camps, Sunni and Shia. The proximate cause was a difference of opinion about the selection of a new caliph, the spiritual and political leader of the Muslim community. The Sunni felt he should be elected; those who came to be called Shiites believed that he must be a member of the Prophet's family. The quarrel came to a head at the Battle of Karbala (in what is now Iraq) in 680 and the defeat of the Shiite faction, which still nurtures historical resentments toward the victors, and a sense of eternal victimhood." [4]

"There was a time when Protestants viewed Roman Catholics as idolatrous heretics and bloody wars of religion ravaged Europe. ISIL is now fighting such a war against Shiites, Christians, Yezidis, secularists, and others it sees as unbelievers and as stooges of the west. But its primary target is the Shiites." [5]

"During the 1950s the U.S. embraced the Baath party as the only alternative to communism (the Iraqi Communist Party was the largest in the Middle East) and Islamism. Its view changed after the 1967 war, when Washington came to see the Middle East through Israel's eyes and bought the Israeli line that Baghdad was a 'sponsor of terrorism.' The U.S. might still occasionally differ with Israel (as when Reagan administration condemned the Israeli bombing of Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1982). It might even align itself with Iraq, as it did from 1980 to 1988 when Iraq as fighting a war of aggression against Iran. But (especially as the neocons gained ascendency [sic] in the regime) Washington sought 'regime change.' President George W.H. Bush did not obtain this during the 1991 assault on Iraq.... But his son used the 9/11 attacks to one-up his dad and accomplished a long-held ambition.

"George 'Dubya' Bush gleefully destroyed the Iraqi state. He smashed a state in which Christians served in high posts, women attended college and felt free to leave their heads uncovered, rock n' roll blared from radios, liquor stores operated legally, and there was even a gay scene. He replaced it with an occupation run by clueless cowboys literally marching around Baghdad in cowboy boots, issuing orders--most notably the orders of dissolution of the Baathist Party and the Iraqi Army.

"But these were the main vehicles of power for the Sunnis....These were secular institutions, not tools for the propagation of any theology. Their dissolution was an attack, not on a religious belief system (about which the [Dubya Clueless Cowboy] Occupation could have cared less), but on the Sunni community that had provided Saddam Hussein's support base and dominated his regime.

"The Sunnis violently resisted the [Dubya Clueless Cowboy] Occupation. The Shiites, sensing opportunity, stood by looking sullen, then in response to Ayatollah al-Sistani's call, mounted peaceful protests, demanding elections. After the Abu Ghraib torture photos scandalized the world, the U.S. was forced to allow elections for an Iraqi advisory body, dominated by Shiites, and to return sovereignty to a now-Shiite led regime in 2009. Meanwhile a Sunni-Shiite civil war broke out. The U.S. had opened a Pandora's Box of ethnic strife, which continues. It is the gift that just keeps on giving.

"Abu Musad al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian free-lance terrorist, decided to establish an Al-Qaeda branch in Iraq. He found ample support among the Sunnis of Anbar Province. His group was largely chased out during the U.S. 'surge' of 2007, but found a home in Syria. In 2011, during the ill-fated 'Arab Spring,' a pro-democracy, anti-corruption protest movement erupted in Syria. Obama announced that President Bashar Assas must resign. (Why? Here was another secularist, another Baathist, presiding over another country where women dress in Western fashions, go to college, drink beer and listen to rock n' roll--a country striving for a normalized relationship with the U.S. but spurned by the State Department due to its opposition to Israel, which illegally occupies its Golan Heights, and due to its alliance with Iran.)." [6]

(That was a lot of typing quoting Professor Gary Luepp's article).  The article has a conclusion (click on footnote number 3 below if interested).

With Russia backing Iran and Syria and United States supporting Saudi Arabia and demanding a regime change in Syria, the stage is set for far more uncertainty going forward in 2016 than what was experienced in 2015 now that Saudi Arabia had cut diplomatic ties with Iran.

With tensions rising in the Mideast and a limited nuclear confrontation entering the realm of possibility, the moment of peace [7] in this world has become more and more impossible to realize in the foreseeable future and a place of peace [8] can only exist in one's imagination.

May God bless us all!


[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Address of this blog: http://lemomentdepaix.blogspot.com/
[8] Title of this blog: Place de la Paix.


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